Is home-ice advantage a myth?

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FREDERICTON (CP) — A group of Canadian psychologists is shooting holes in the dearly held belief that home ice is a big advantage when trying to win a hockey championship.

Just in time for playoff season, the psychologists, including Dan Voyer of the University of New Brunswick, are reminding fans of their statistical study of NHL playoff games that found that in a majority of cases, teams lose when playing on home ice.

"It makes me laugh when I hear sports commentators say, `This team has the home-ice advantage,' " says Voyer, a hockey fan and professor of psychology at UNB's Fredericton campus.

"I know that in the playoffs, it means nothing."

The team of psychologists, led by Edward Wright of St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S., studied Stanley Cup finals between 1961 and 1993. They published their findings in the Journal of Sports Behaviour several years ago, but the findings were not widely discussed and did little to dispel the myth of home-ice advantage.

Essentially, the psychologists explored the "choke effect" in championship hockey.

"The hypothesis was that when it is a critical game and people have the possibility of redefining themselves as champions or winners, then they become more self-conscious and start making more mistakes," Voyer says.

"In hockey that means you'll get in trouble, the puck gets into your net and you lose."

Voyer says there's not a wide margin between the loss-and-win ratio but he says that, generally, teams lose championship games on home ice 60 per cent of the time.

He says the findings apply to other sports as well, including baseball, basketball, football and even golf.

But hockey experts are skeptical.

"There is a subtle pressure, no question, from your home fans," says Bill Watters, an executive with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

"You want to perform. But you'd like to think that pressure would be transformed into energy."

Watters lists off major games the Leafs have won at home versus those on the road, quickly calculating that the outcomes are roughly 50-50.

"It's a coin toss," he says, adding he would rather start a series on the road and finish at home.

Voyer says home ice is not a problem during regular season play, when titles are not on the line and there isn't as much fan pressure.

"At regular levels of play, there is not as much pressure and teams can perform optimally," he says.

"You can work better because pressure is not there. When you have that extra pressure, the fans are actually hurting you."

Voyer says that when players sense home-town anxiety for a great performance, they become acutely aware of what they are doing and how they are playing.

He says things professional players do automatically, such as skating, stick-handling or even holding a golf club, become the subject of self-conscious scrutiny.

"Becoming very aware of what you are doing is the surest way to make mistakes when you're talking about something that should be automatic."

The Canadian results mirror a groundbreaking U.S. study in the 1980s that first debunked the home-advantage theory.

Psychologist Roy Baumeister of Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland and a colleague suggested that playing at home is actually bad for a team on the brink of winning a championship.

The prospect of becoming champions in front of home fans makes players self-conscious, which could lead to mistakes on the field, they said.

To support their theory, the researchers analysed a sampling of World Series results from 1924 to 1982. They found that home teams won the final game of the series only 41 per cent of the time, and the seventh game only 39 per cent of the time
 

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With regard to HOCKEY having a HOME ICE ADVANTAGE...Analyzing a team's HOME WIN/LOSE record is vital...such as, analyzing penalty minute differentials HOME verse AWAY, as well as particular officiating crews...perhaps a "hidden" edge can be found. This differential (if found) may just support a Home verse Away team record.

Example:
There "appears" to be a differential as in EVPM (Excessive Vistor Penalties Minutes) when California Hockey Teams are playing at HOME.
 

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